Good morning. In 1992, George Soros made $1 billion in a single day by shorting the British pound. The Bank of England couldn’t hold its currency peg, and Soros became known as “The Man Who Broke the Bank of England.”

One well-timed trade. One central bank. Legendary status.

-Jonathan Kibbler, Shaun A, Pat Lewis

MARKETS

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

MARKET ANALYSIS

This week we have already discussed the copper explosion, but now it’s beginning to drag other asset classes up to. The FTSE100 has broken into new all-time highs, but what happened, and what happens next?

On July 10, the FTSE 100 closed at a record 8,975, led by massive gains in mining and resource stocks. Glencore, Rio Tinto and Anglo American all popped higher as copper surged on the back of Trump’s new 50% copper import tariff.

This marks a nearly 9% year-to-date gain for the FTSE, making it one of the better-performing major indices this year.

Let me be super clear, this isn’t a celebration of UK growth. Now David Beckham free kick against Greece type anyway.

Why?

Well, the FTSE100 is not a barometer of Britain’s economic health. Over 75% of FTSE100 company revenues come from outside of the UK.

It’s dominated by global multinationals in mining, energy, pharmaceuticals and consumer staples.

So those thinking this must be good for the British pound. Think again.

If anything, a weaker GBP could often boost the FTSE100 because many of its earnings are USD denominated.

The UK is suffering from a recent bout of poor data, with stagnant growth, retail sales and cautious BoE policy, the GBP weakness is likely to remain.

1. Trump’s copper tariff caused copper and other metals to rip higher. UK listed miners became direct beneficiaries. Rio Tinto and Glencore shares jumped over 5% each, Anglo American jumped over 7%.

2. GBP/USD is struggling to gain any traction, a weaker GBP against the USD could amplify overseas earnings for FTSE companies.

3. EU-US trade negotiations have been ‘doing well’ and this could have bought some fresh optimism around global trade.

If all these drivers continue, then the narrative may not shift here.

Meaning we could see the FTSE100 continue to trade higher.

IF the GBP does begin to weaker on diminishing optimism from the Bank of England, then this could add fuel to the rally.

As a trader, I will be watching for daily chart pullbacks into key levels of support or back into the moving averages and will identify swing trading opportunities.

Hope this helps!

-Jonathan Kibbler

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NEWS

The U.S.-Canada trade relationship just got a serious jolt.

On Thursday, President Donald Trump announced a new 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1. The reason? Retaliation. Trump says Canada fired first, slapping tariffs on U.S. goods instead of cooperating. And now he’s promising even more pain if Ottawa fights back again.

Trump's announcement puts a blanket 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting next month. This is on top of the existing 25% tariffs from earlier this year over alleged fentanyl-related issues. Some Canadian energy resources are still seeing a lower 10% levy, but the new flat rate will hit everything else.

Trump warned that if Canada retaliates with new tariffs of its own, the U.S. will simply add that amount to the existing 35%. In other words: retaliate with 10%? Get hit with 45%. It’s an aggressive escalation clause that makes negotiation risky for Ottawa.

Goods complying with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) may remain exempt, but Trump’s letter makes clear that "transshipped" goods attempting to dodge the higher tariff will be hit anyway. This is aimed at any creative routing to evade the penalty.

This latest clash follows Canada’s now-paused digital services tax, aimed at U.S. tech firms. Trump initially said this would kill all trade discussions, but Canada pulled back and talks resumed. Now, with a July 21 trade deal deadline approaching, tensions have flared again.

In the letter, Trump ties the tariffs to national security and the fight against fentanyl, accusing Canada of contributing to the drug crisis. He says resolving those issues could lead to tariff reductions, but also points to "unsustainable trade deficits" as a broader justification.

This 35% tariff isn’t just about Canada. It’s Trump flexing muscle ahead of wider trade renegotiations and using every tool, from fentanyl to deficits, to pressure allies. Markets haven’t fully reacted yet, but we should watch for possible fallout in CAD pairs, North American equities, and commodities tied to cross-border flow.

-Shaun A

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ANSWER

Answer: Moving Average