Good morning. The first company ever listed on the NYSE was the Bank of New York in 1792. Back then, trades were made under a buttonwood tree on Wall Street.
From trees to trading screens, markets have always found a way to grow.
-Jonathan Kibbler, Shaun A, Pat Lewis
MARKETS
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Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
TRADER INSIGHTS
This Powell Rumor Could Be the Volatility Catalyst You’ve Been Waiting For
Markets swung hard on rumors Trump wanted to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. If it actually happens, as retail traders we should expect fireworks and potentially big trading opportunities.
What exactly happened?
Today around 4pm GMT the market spiked wildly as reports surfaced that US President Donald Trump discussed removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell during a meeting with senior officials and republican lawmakers.
The unconfirmed rumour sent markets into panic mode:
S&P500 fell 0.8% before rebounding.
USD Index slipped by 1%.
Gold prices momentarily rallied by 1.25%.
I say the rumour was unconfirmed because President Trump stated he was “not planning” on firing Powell, which helped the market sell off retreat.
Why Does This Matter?
This for one shows us how sensitive the market could be to this news. Which gets the alarm bells ringing in my head. If the market cares, we should care.
The Fed’s independence is a cornerstone of global market stability.
If Powell is fired (which is technically illegal in the US) then the implications could be huge.
Uncertainty could be at an all time high, which would likely see volatility rise.
Stock markets could drop hard in line with the rally in volatility.
Trading Options For Me
Patience is going to be the key for me in these scenarios.
At the beginning of the year, I said the best strategy could be to wait for the VIX to rise sharply, and then look to fade the move.
Well if Jerome Powell gets fired, that is exactly what I am going to look for.
I will try to wait for the spike of the VIX and then when it reaches a significant level, I will look to fade the move.
Final Thoughts
The odds of Powell actually being fired remain low, Trump himself said it’s “highly unlikely.” But now that the idea has entered market psychology, any future hint of Powell being undermined could trigger rapid volatility.
For retail traders, that’s not a reason to panic. It’s a reason to prepare. Sharp dips and volatility spikes are often where the best opportunities live.
LEARN
Interest Rate Decisions Made Simple: Why Every Trader Should Care
If you trade forex, stocks, or gold and ignore central bank meetings, you’re basically driving with your eyes closed.
Interest rate decisions are the heavyweight events of macro trading. They can rip through charts in seconds, wipe out stops, and rewrite trendlines, all before your coffee gets cold. And no, it’s not just about the number. It’s about what’s said, what’s hinted, and what’s left unsaid.
Here’s what you need to know and why it matters.
1. Rate Hikes vs. Rate Cuts
Central banks like the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ use rates to control inflation and growth:
Hike rates? Borrowing gets expensive, economies cool, currencies’ value will rise.
Cut rates? Borrowing gets cheap, economies heat up, currencies’ value will fall.
For us traders, this means:
Higher rates = Stronger USD, weaker gold, pressure on stocks.
Lower rates = Softer USD, gold shines, stocks usually breathe easier.
2. It’s Not Just the Rate, It’s the Tone
Markets often move more on what central bankers say than what they do. A “pause” with a hawkish tone? USD can spike. A cut with dovish guidance? Risk assets might party.
Here’s a tip: Always read the statement and watch for buzzwords like “data-dependent,” “further tightening,” or “policy pivot.” These phrases are your trading compass.
3. Global Heavyweights: Who Really Matters?
The Fed: The kingpin. USD is the world’s reserve currency, so Fed policy sets the tone globally.
ECB: Governs the euro, the second-most traded currency. Lagarde’s tone can swing EUR/USD like crazy.
BoE: Sterling reacts hard to UK inflation chatter.
BoJ: Known for ultra-low rates and surprise tweaks. A single hint from Ueda can rock the yen.
If you see these meetings on the calendar, cancel your beach day.
4. Not Just FX — Stocks, Bonds, and Gold Dance Too
Stocks: Hate rate hikes (higher borrowing costs). Love cuts (cheap money).
Gold: Rates up = less shine. Rates down = bullion boom.
Bonds: Yields spike on hawkish signals, crushing risk sentiment.
Even crypto gets caught in the macro crossfire. Rate decisions move everything.
5. How to Trade It Without Getting Wrecked
Know the forecast vs. reality: Surprises move markets, not the obvious.
Expect volatility: Spreads widen, liquidity thins. Use smaller positions or wait for the dust to settle.
Watch the press conference: The first move after the rate print is often a fake-out. The real trend shows after the Q&A.
Here’s the Takeaway:
Interest rate decisions are not “just another data drop.” They’re the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ telling you where the economy and your trades might be heading next. Ignore them and you risk trading blind.
Keep these events on your radar, read between the lines, and remember: the number is just the headline; the message moves the market.
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Trading Brain Training
I’m not a coin, but I change like one.
My price is fixed, yet futures run.
A vault holds me, but you trade my name,
Paper hands, yet metal’s my claim.
What Am I?
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ANSWER
Answer: Gold $XAUUSD ( 0.0% )