Good morning. In 2001, the NYSE had to halt trading for several days after the 9/11 attacks, marking one of the few times modern markets shut down due to national crisis.

When charts paused, the world watched. Some candles mean more than price.

-Jonathan Kibbler, Shaun A, Jordon Mellor

MARKETS

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

TRADER INSIGHTS

The past couple of weeks I have been monitoring the positioning of hedge funds on the weekly commitment of trader reports. I noticed some interesting extremes forming which combined with a couple of other catalysts could highlight an opportunity forming.

The latest CoT report shows:

This creates a perfect storm for EUR/AUD downside, because both currencies could move at once – euro down, Aussie up.

Eurozone headwinds are building.

Q2 GDP is expected to come in flat after growing 0.6% in Q1, signaling that momentum in the eurozone is fading. On top of that, the recently announced US-EU trade framework has raised more questions than answers. Disputes over steel, aluminum, and pharmaceutical tariffs remain unresolved, leaving room for further uncertainty that could weigh on the euro.

Australia has a potential upside catalyst.

The upcoming Q2 CPI report could be the game-changer for AUD. If inflation data comes in stronger than expected, it would challenge the market’s assumption that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates in the coming months. That could force a rapid short-covering rally in AUD.

The price is breaking out of a daily time frame trend line support as well as key swing lows. A break of these lows would be ideal for short opportunities down to the key support zone around 1.7200. 

-Jonathan Kibbler

TRADER INSIGHTS

Despite no action expected on rates this July, several major subplots are heating up.

Two key Fed governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, may dissent and vote for an immediate rate cut. That would be the first multi-governor dissent since 1993. Waller, a long-shot contender to replace Powell in 2026, recently made a strong public case for easing now, citing risks to the labor market and subdued inflation.

Meanwhile, President Trump’s continued pressure campaign both through rhetoric and his recent Fed site visit adds fuel to an already tense atmosphere.

1. The Fed Is Likely to Stay Put This Week

The consensus is clear: the Fed will hold rates steady again, just as it did in June. While some market participants are itching for a cut, the FOMC is taking a cautious, data-driven stance. There’s no new economic projection or “dot plot” this time, meaning any forward guidance will come directly from Powell’s post-meeting press conference.

2. Rare Potential for Dissenting Votes

Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman are wildcards. If both vote for a cut, it’ll be the first time in 30 years that two Fed governors have broken ranks. Their stance reflects growing internal disagreement over how urgent rate cuts really are, especially with inflation cooling and jobs data showing cracks.

3. Trump’s Pressure on the Fed Isn’t Over

President Trump hasn’t let up. After years of attacking Powell and the Fed for keeping rates high, he’s now taken his campaign public, literally, by touring the Fed’s renovation site and criticizing its budget. While the White House says it’s not a pressure campaign, it’s clear that the administration wants action and fast.

4. Market Odds Still Favor a September Cut

Despite the July pause, many analysts still believe the Fed could pivot in September. That’s assuming inflation stays contained and employment data softens further. The June “dot plot” suggested two cuts this year, but showed serious division among policymakers. Everything now hinges on how the data unfolds in August.

5. Powell’s Message Will Be Closely Dissected

Without any projections, Powell’s press conference becomes the main event. Traders will hang on every word, hunting for signs of dovish pivot or pushback. Any subtle shift in tone especially on inflation, labor, or political independence could spark volatility across USD, stocks, and gold.

This might not be a “decision” week for the Fed, but it’s absolutely a decisive one for us traders. The silence on rate cuts is growing louder, and so is the internal debate. With dissent possible, Powell under pressure, and September still wide open, this meeting could reset expectations across global markets.

-Shaun A

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ANSWER

Answer: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) $DXY ( 0.0% )