Good morning. Long before trading signals came from Discord or indicators, ancient Greek merchants used smoke signals to share market news across cities. If olive prices dropped, you'd see a puff of smoke, old-school alerts with zero lag.

Thousands of years later, we’re still chasing signals. Just with fewer torches and way more fakeouts.

-Jordon Mellor, Patrick Lewis, Shaun A

MARKETS

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

TRADER INSIGHTS

As part of my weekly forex trading review, I look towards sentiment data.

For me this includes the Commitment of Trader reports, identifying where the commercials, large speculators and non-reportable are positioned.

What am I trying to identify?

Extremes.

An extreme occurs when a position held by any one of the above entities is weighted too heavily on one side.

Think of it like a rubber band.

You can keep stretching the rubber band, but eventually under extreme pressure it can snap.

Similarly, if large speculators like hedge funds hold an extreme long or short position in each market, it can become unbalanced, and the market ‘snaps back’ or reverses.

Let’s look at some of the extremes.

The price of EURO futures or EURUSD to us retail traders, has skyrocketed since the beginning of the year.

This is largely due to:

USD weakness brought on by US President Donald Trump.

US data points have been poor including NFP, GDP Growth and Retail Sales.

EUR strength due to large stimulus packages throughout Europe and Germany.

As time goes on and this narrative remains, positioning begins to become heavily weighted in one direction.

For this instance, it is weighted to the buyside for large speculators and non-reportable, and to the sell side for commercials (as they hedge the markets).

The chart below represents the non-reportable category of the reports. This category often jumps on trends a little later than large speculators and can increase positions heavily at the end of a trend.

The down arrows represent where long contracts reach extremes by the non-reportable. The up arrows represent where short contracts reach extremes by the non-reportable.

You may notice that this can lead to a reversal in price.

Why? Because they tend to be overleveraged at the wrong time.

Now let’s look at the large speculators.

They are in the market to make money, but they also end up reaching extremes.

As of right now, large speculators are approaching a previous extreme that formed on the 2nd September last year.

The price on this event fell from the highs of 1.1200 to the lows of 1.0200.

This time the price is trading much higher near the 1.1700.

Whilst clear resistance on EURUSD sits at 1.1700 the next extreme resistance isn’t until 1.2200.

So, if price does start to stall here then we could expect a reversal soon.

Silver has been my best performing asset this year.

I have only lost 1 out of my 12 trades on silver.

The gold/silver ratio chart has been a big help to me when it comes to identifying when to buy silver.

But also knowing when to get out using the CoT reports has also helped.

The chart above shows us how the large speculators seem to take profit on their positions when their long contracts reach a level between 60-70k.

I say take profits as the overall trend of silver has been up.

Could the same happen this time?

If it does it means we could see the price of silver fall back to levels of support such as $34.00, which are the highs before the recent breakout.

Remember the CoT reports are not great at timing, but they can help us with our approach to the markets, especially if we can combine them with other fundamentals and tools.

-Jonathan Kibbler

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MARKET ANALYSIS

The markets are taking a glance at XRP, as several potentially bullish factors collide - setting the stage for significant (or at least some) price movement. Recent developments surrounding Ripple's legal situation, technical advancements on the XRP Ledger, and growing institutional interest could all act as the spark to push XRP towards its previous all-time highs in the coming months.

XRP's price action presents a mixed technical picture as it consolidates below the $2.65 resistance level. The weekly chart shows the token hovering around neutral territory however a decisive breakout above the $2.65 mark could trigger a 25% upward move, testing higher resistance levels.

For XRP to reach the hotly anticipated and frankly, very optimistic target of $7, it would need to enter price discovery mode and sustain a strong bullish trend. This would require overcoming multiple psychological barriers and maintaining momentum even during periods of broader market volatility.

Futures and options markets tell an interesting story about trader positioning. While open interest has declined slightly, trading volume has surged dramatically, indicating renewed activity around XRP. The long/short ratio exceeding 2 on major exchanges like Binance and OKX shows traders are predominantly betting on upward movement.

The most significant development comes from Ripple's ongoing legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Recent court filings indicate both parties have agreed to a $50 million settlement, potentially bringing closure to the multi-year lawsuit that has weighed on XRP's market performance. Such a resolution could remove a major overhang and encourage broader institutional adoption.

Additional catalysts include discussions at the highest levels of U.S. financial regulation. Former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo, appointed during the Trump administration, recently proposed innovative ideas about government-issued bonds backed by cryptocurrencies like XRP during the XRPL Apex 2025 summit in Singapore.

Furthermore, banking sector developments could significantly benefit Ripple's operations. Industry insiders reveal ongoing work to create specialized bank charters that would allow payment-focused firms like Ripple to obtain banking licenses, potentially revolutionizing how blockchain companies interact with traditional financial systems.

The XRPL development team, led by Ripple CTO David Schwartz, announced plans to launch an Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)-compatible sidechain in Q2 2025. The sidechain will feature a wrapped version of XRP as its native gas token and include a secure bridge to the main XRPL, potentially bringing substantial new utility and demand to the XRP token.

Despite these positive developments, VanEck's Head of Digital Assets Matthew Sigel warns investors to approach recent corporate announcements about XRP treasury purchases with skepticism. He suggests some smaller companies' highly publicized plans to acquire hundreds of millions in XRP could represent "pump and dump" schemes rather than genuine long-term commitments.

As the market digests these developments, XRP's performance in the coming weeks could determine whether it can transition from its current consolidation phase into a new period of price discovery. The $2 support level remains crucial – maintaining this floor could set the stage for upward movement, while a breakdown might lead to extended consolidation before the next major catalyst emerges.

With Ripple's stablecoin initiatives gaining traction and the XRPL ecosystem expanding its capabilities, 2025 could prove to be a transformative year for XRP's market position and adoption trajectory. Investors and traders alike will be watching closely to see if these fundamental improvements translate into sustained price appreciation.

-Patrick Lewis

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ANSWER

Answer: Gold $XAUUSD ( 0.0% )