Good morning. In 2013, a tweet from a hacked AP account claiming the White House had been attacked wiped $136 billion off the U.S. stock market in minutes.

Turns out, in trading, even fake news can cause real pain.

-Jonathan Kibbler, Pat Lewis, Shaun A

MARKETS

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

TRADER INSIGHTS

The Volatility Index or VIX is the fear gauge of the market, and now its low.

As tensions begin to rise globally with the United States entering the war between Isreal and Iran, it seems only a matter for time before we see a spike in the volatility index.

In previous posts, I outlined a trading strategy that I felt would work when Trump won the presidency for his second term.

It involved watch the volatility index and waiting for a spike towards 40 or above, as this could signal a fade opportunity.

This strategy remains valid, especially if you managed to buy the recent dip back on April 7th .

Just a quick refresher for those that may have seen my previous posts and for those who have not.

The VIX measures the implied volatility on S&P500 options, essentially pricing in investor fear.

When markets panic, the VIX spikes and it does it at a rapid pace.

Historically when the VIX breaks above 40, which I would consider an extreme, panic tends to fade offering reversal opportunities on most risk assets.

The United States bombed nuclear facilities in Iran and Iran are yet to respond.

Many think that Iran will not respond and that will only threaten a response, with one being shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran control. Shutting down this could impact global oil flows.

Another risk is Iran targeting US citizens or US military based in Iran. That threat has been aired across Iran’s news and could trigger bigger implications if followed through.

Tying to call the top in a market is never a clever idea.

In my experience it’s better to fade a move than to try and catch it when its unfolding.

Looking at previous examples most recently April 7th after Trumps Liberation day tariffs, the market sold off agressively and the VIX rallied above 40. The VIX staying above 40 for a long period of time is highly unlikely which led to a rebound in the stock market.

If the tensions continue to rise and we see a significant retaliation by Iran then we could see a spike in the VIX but this isn’t guaranteed.

So, if and only if the VIX spikes, then I will be looking to fade the move.

While markets remain calm for now, the geopolitical backdrop is anything but. The VIX may be low today, but history shows that fear can return swiftly and violently. Rather than predicting a top, the smarter move is to stay patient and let the volatility come to you. If the VIX surges above 40 amid escalating tensions, that could offer a tactical opportunity to fade the panic, just as it has in the past.

-Jonathan Kibbler

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CRYPTO

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap jumped from $2,230 to $2,420 within hours of the late Monday announcement, leading a broader market recovery that reversed nearly two weeks of war-driven anxiety.

The dramatic price movement came after Trump took to Truth Social to reveal a carefully negotiated dual-phase ceasefire that would bring an end to the 12-day conflict. According to his statement, Iran would initiate a 12-hour pause in hostilities, followed by Israel implementing a 24-hour complete cessation of military actions. Trump framed the agreement as preventing what could have escalated into a prolonged regional war, praising both nations for showing restraint during the tense negotiations. However, this situation is evolving rapidly, and at the time of writing, Iran has signaled that it does not agree to any ceasefires - Ethereum is yet to react.

What makes Ethereum's rally particularly noteworthy is how it built upon existing strength in the network fundamentals. Even during the recent market downturn caused by geopolitical uncertainty, on-chain data reveals that Ethereum whales were quietly accumulating positions. Over $265 million worth of ETH flowed into large wallets during the dip, including one particularly aggressive buyer who scooped up 47,070 ETH (approximately $113 million) across just three days. This accumulation suggested smart money was positioning for a rebound long before the ceasefire news broke.

The Ethereum network itself has been demonstrating remarkable resilience throughout recent market turbulence. Since mid-May, the ecosystem has been adding roughly one million new wallet addresses per week, a 50% increase compared to the same period last year. This steady growth in user adoption provided a strong foundation for the price recovery once market sentiment shifted.

From a technical perspective, Ethereum's breakout followed a textbook bullish pattern. After establishing solid support between $2,220 and $2,230, the price surged through multiple resistance levels with unusually high trading volume. At the peak of the rally, ETH touched $2,434 before entering a healthy consolidation phase between $2,390 and $2,402. Traders noted the formation of a potential bull flag pattern during this period of stabilization, a technical setup that often precedes another upward move if buying pressure continues.

The ceasefire announcement didn't just benefit Ethereum, it sparked a broad-based crypto market recovery. However, ETH's outperformance highlights its unique position as both a high-beta crypto asset and a network with strong fundamental usage. While Bitcoin typically serves as the market's safe haven during periods of uncertainty, Ethereum often leads the charge when risk appetite returns due to its central role in decentralized finance and other blockchain applications.

Market analysts are now watching to see if this momentum can push ETH through the next psychological barrier at $2,500. The speed of the recovery suggests pent-up demand from both institutional and retail investors who had been sitting on the sidelines during the geopolitical turmoil. With trading volume spiking to 2.5 times the 24-hour average during key moments of the rally, there appears to be substantial conviction behind this move.

The potential peaceful resolution removes a significant overhang for crypto markets more broadly. During the conflict, traders had grown increasingly concerned about potential disruptions to global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a scenario that could have driven energy prices higher and complicated the Federal Reserve's inflation fight. With those fears now easing, the path appears clearer for potential interest rate cuts later this year, which typically create favorable conditions for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Looking ahead, Ethereum's trajectory may depend on whether the ceasefire holds and how quickly normal market dynamics resume. The network's upcoming technical upgrades and growing institutional interest through spot ETF applications provide additional tailwinds that could extend this rally beyond geopolitically-driven gains. For now, the market appears to be rewarding Ethereum's combination of strong fundamentals and sensitivity to improving risk sentiment, a reminder that in crypto markets, peace can sometimes be the most bullish catalyst of all.

For traders like yourself, the key takeaway may be the importance of distinguishing between temporary geopolitical shocks and longer-term fundamental trends. While the recent conflict created short-term volatility, Ethereum's underlying network growth and whale accumulation patterns suggested stronger hands were looking through the noise. This divergence between price action and fundamentals ultimately set the stage for the powerful rally that followed the ceasefire news, a reminder that in crypto markets, patience and perspective often prove more valuable than knee-jerk reactions to headlines.

-Pat Lewis

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Answer: Bonds