Good morning. The candlestick chart most traders use today was first developed by Japanese rice traders in the 1700s. They used it to track supply, demand, and even trader emotions in the rice market.
Three centuries later, we’re still reading the same wicks and bodies, just on screens instead of scrolls.
-Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
FOREX
Three Charts Making A Move Right Now
Some weeks the charts feel like they’re just drifting, but this one’s different, every headline seems to land with weight.
Powell’s careful words kept the dollar from slipping too far, Trump’s tariff threats added fuel to USD/CAD, and gold once again reminded everyone why it’s the ultimate safe haven. Meanwhile, the yen is hanging just under that big 148 level, waiting for either the Fed or the BoJ to tip the balance.
Here’s what you need to know so far:
1. Gold Holds Near Records
Gold continues to hover just under its all-time high of $3,791, trading around $3,773 as of today. The breakout from its long consolidation box between $3,330 and $3,426 has been decisive, and the structure remains firmly bullish.
Immediate resistance sits at $3,791, the record high. A clean break above opens the path toward $3,800–$3,820. On the downside, $3,703 is the first line of defense, followed by the breakout zone around $3,674. As long as gold holds above $3,674, buyers stay in control. Only a deeper slip toward $3,624–$3,600 would hint at a stronger correction.
Personally, I think gold is still in a buy-the-dip market. After such a sharp rally, consolidation is normal but until the $3,674 zone gives way, the uptrend remains very much alive.
2. USD/CAD Climbs on Tariffs
USD/CAD is trading around 1.3847, pressing right against a descending trendline that’s capped the pair since March. Each touch of this line has drawn sellers back in, so this area is crucial.
Immediate resistance stands at 1.3858, a break here could open the way toward 1.3912 and even 1.3983 if momentum builds. On the downside, first support is near 1.3784, with a deeper floor around 1.3762–1.3732. As long as price stays above this rising base, the bulls have something to lean on.
This pair looks like it is at a decision point. Either it breaks the ceiling for a fresh push higher, or the trendline acts as another rejection zone, sending it back toward support.
3. USD/JPY Steadies at Resistance
USD/JPY is trading near 147.92, pressing against heavy resistance in the 148.30–148.60 zone, an area that has capped rallies multiple times since April. Each time price entered this band, sellers quickly stepped in, making this the ceiling to watch.
Support sits just below at 147.66, with stronger layers at 146.52 and 146.36. If these levels give way, the pair could slide toward the deeper demand zone around 145.00–144.60. On the flip side, a decisive breakout above 148.60 would unlock room toward the psychological 150.00, with 151.93 (the March high) as the ultimate upside marker.
My Takeaway
Gold is still a buy-the-dip play, USD/CAD is lifted more by politics than data, and USD/JPY is stuck under 148.00 until the BoJ makes its move. These three charts are making some move right now, and for me, it’s not about guessing headlines but trading the levels when the market tips its hand.
TRADER INSIGHTS
This 60-Year-Old Report Still Moves Markets
Every Friday, the CFTC publishes something called the Commitment of Traders (COT) report and most retail traders skip right past it.
What the Report Actually Shows
The COT basically splits traders into three groups:
Commercials (hedgers): Big businesses that use futures to protect themselves from price moves. Think airlines hedging fuel prices or exporters hedging currency risk.
Non-Commercials (speculators): Hedge funds, asset managers, and other big money traders who are in it to profit.
Non-Reportables: Smaller traders (yes, that’s us retail folks), but their impact is so small they’re grouped together.
By looking at these positions, you can see who is leaning bullish, who is leaning bearish, and where the extremes are.
Why Traders Still Use It Today
The COT isn’t a magic “buy or sell” signal, but it can be a great tool for context:
Spotting extremes: If hedge funds are extremely short AUD futures, like we’ve seen recently, it can often signal a potential reversal. Crowded trades eventually run out of fuel.
Understanding sentiment: If hedge funds are consistently reducing longs and increasing short positions, it tells what the smart money is doing.
Timing big moves: Markets often turn when positioning hits an extreme not because of the report itself, but because the positioning leaves little room for new traders to push the move further.
Current Extreme
The latest CoT report highlights the extreme long position held by large speculators on the EUR futures markets (EURUSD).
This extreme has been forming over the past few weeks, with the price contained within a moderate trading range.
An extreme such as this one could highlight a potential reversal, but we need a fundamental catalyst. At the moment we don’t have it, so the price could continue to move higher in the short term.
Remember CoT reports is not a great timing tool, but can help sport opportunities for reversals.
WATCH
We Are Releasing Episode 2 of Funded Freedom!
CHART BREAKDOWN OF THE DAY (BTC/USD)
BTC/USD is testing its ascending trendline support around 112K after slipping below the 50-day SMA near 114K. Price action shows consolidation between 108K and 119K, with the 100-day SMA around 101K acting as a deeper support cushion. A rebound from here keeps the bullish structure intact toward 119K–123K resistance, but a firm break below 112K could shift momentum toward 108K and potentially 101K.
DAILY TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NUGGET
Patience beats Panic. Don't jump at every market twitch. The best trades come from sticking to your plan and waiting for the right moment, not from reacting impulsively. Learning to hold back when uncertain is a powerful trading skill.
TODAY’S MOST TRENDING MARKET NEWS (SEPTEMBER 24, 2025)
credits: Asahi-Shimbun
Asia markets are under pressure today, with regional stocks sliding amid lingering uncertainty over U.S. interest rate direction and softer-than-expected economic data. Financial markets are also watching the U.S. dollar’s rebound after Fed Chair Powell’s cautious tone dampened hopes for aggressive easing. (source: reuters)
GAMES
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ANSWER
Answer: The Federal Reserve (The Fed)