Good morning. In 2013, a single fake tweet from a hacked Associated Press account claimed there was an explosion at the White House. Within minutes, the Dow plunged 150 points, wiping out $136 billion in market value, before bouncing back once the truth came out.
Proof that in trading, headlines can move markets faster than fundamentals.
-Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
MARKET ANALYSIS
The Week USD Can’t Afford to Get Wrong
We’re heading into a week where the dollar has everything to gain or lose. After the Fed’s recent cut, traders are split: is this the start of a proper easing cycle, or just insurance? The answer lies in three events that could reset momentum across FX.
Here’s what awaits us this week:
1. Fed Chair Powell Speaks
On Wednesday, September 24, Powell takes the stage, and his words could be the most market-moving of the week. His last message was framed as “risk management,” but traders want clarity.
Is the Fed leaning into a series of cuts or keeping its options open? The dollar index $DXY ( 0.0% ) has bounced from lows, but the broader trend is fragile. Powell’s tone could decide whether USD strength sticks or fades fast.
2. U.S. CPI y/y
Also on Wednesday, September 24, inflation returns to the spotlight with CPI expected at 2.9% vs 2.8% previous. This print is the week’s real test. A hotter number pressures the Fed to slow its easing pace, boosting the dollar and weighing on gold. A softer figure, though, adds fuel to the dovish side and sets EUR/USD and USD/JPY up for sharp moves.
3. Core PCE Price Index
The week closes with Core PCE on Friday, September 26. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, forecast at 0.2% vs 0.3% previous. If it comes in weaker, the case for another rate cut before year-end strengthens. Since it drops on a Friday, thin liquidity could exaggerate market reactions, making this one dangerous to fade.
My Weekly Process
This week, my compass is DXY. If the index struggles to build momentum after Powell, I’ll keep bias toward USD weakness. I expect volatility to spike around CPI midweek and PCE into the weekend. The plan is simple: fewer trades, bigger conviction, and journaling how price reacts to the numbers instead of chasing the first move.
My Takeaway
Three events, one theme: the Fed’s easing path.
Powell’s speech, CPI, and PCE will decide if the dollar breaks lower or clings to support. Weeks like this aren’t about catching every tick, they’re about staying clear-headed when the big swings hit.
TRADER INSIGHTS
Currency Strength & Weakness for 22nd September
The currency strength and weakness shows both risk and risk-off currencies getting stronger, which tells us the markets are trying to seek value all over. Over the last week we had multiple central bank announcements and updates to forward policy which is causing some repositioning across assets.
Let’s take a look at some key data points coming up:
Europe, UK and the United States release their latest figures on manufacturing and services PMI’s. In Europe, Germany will be hoping to see services come back towards 50.0 after seeing previous numbers revised lower.
Australia CPI is forecast to climb to 2.9% from 2.8% which could cause concern for the RBA who are already cautious around cutting rates.
The Swiss National Bank is forecast to leave rates unchanged at 0.00%.
Let’s take a look at the table.
Strong Currencies
My currency strength meter highlights these currencies as the strongest as of last week:
AUD: The Australian dollar on the chart against most currencies has pulled back but not enough to create serious changes to the scoring. Longs must be taken with caution here, when a currency is at +7 it can reverse its strength.
EUR: The EUR has made its way back on to the buy side of the currency strength meter. Strong German data this week could propel this further.
CAD: The Canadian dollar moved from the reversal zone of -7 to -3 this week showing signs of a strong reversal, this is a currency I could look to trade against the much weaker ones.
Weak Currencies
Looking at the opposite side of the strength meter now, these are the weakest of last week:
NZD: The kiwi seems weak across the board especially against its fellow antipodean the Aussie.
USD: The USD remains unchanged. However the currency is trying to form a strong comeback, from a technical perspective it is yet to be confirmed, so keep an eye on it this week.
Markets to watch
Based off of the above these are the currency pairs on my trading watchlist:
Bullish | Bearish |
AUDNZD | NZDCAD |
AUDUSD | USDCAD |
EURNZD | |
EURUSD |
The Australian dollar is the top dog at the moment but that could change, longs must be taken with caution. NZD on the other hand looks weaker and could be one to target for opportunities.
GAMES
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ANSWER
Answer: News Trading