Good morning. The New York Stock Exchange was closed for 4 months in 1914 when World War I began, the longest shutdown in its history.
Imagine waiting that long to close your position… talk about diamond hands.
-Jonathan Kibbler, Pat Lewis, Shaun A
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
FOREX
Missed the Silver Rally? AUD/JPY Could Be the Next Best Trade
Silver continues to surge and is now heading back towards the $39.00 level. A break of this would see the commodity at its highest level since September 2011.
I must say, I am very happy with this result, I am still long Silver and have been buying the dips since the beginning of this year due to the correlation between Gold and Silver and the positioning of the gold/silver ratio.
But today there’s another correlation on my mind.
But first Silver
Silver is rallying hard and is now outpacing gold after the gold/silver ration hit a significant high of 104.60. Investors seem to be rotating into silver as they see it as better value at the moment.
When a market becomes extremely bullish or bearish I like to look into correlations to see if there’s a lagging market I can take advantage of.
This was the same for me when gold rallied and I knew silver had a strong correlation, so although I didn’t trade gold, I ended up trading silver instead.
Here’s where it gets interesting
When looking across the assets for correlations against silver I can see two markets that are highly correlated.
The first is NZD/JPY which has a 90.8% positive correlation. However, I am not that interested in buying the NZD (New Zealand dollar) at the moment.
The second one is AUD/JPY which has a 87.1% positive correlation. Now this one is getting my attention as there are other factors going in the forex pairs favour.
The Winning Formula?
So, we have a silver market that is rallying, a strong positive correlation with AUD/JPY and finally we have it backed by the currency strength meter.

The currency strength meter is pointing to the AUD (Australian dollar) as the strongest currency of +5, and the JPY (Japanese Yen) as the weakest currency at -5.
With the two currencies being polar opposite on the scale, we should expect an upward trend to form.
This could be the formula that sees higher prices from key levels of support.
Seasonal Mood Killer
I always like to have a look at the seasonal charts just to see if there is anything glaringly obvious.
Over a 20 year period between the 21st July and the 3rd August, the price of AUD/JPY can form a top with a success rate of over 75%. That means the market has fallen 15 out of the last 20 years, which is a strong signal.
This could put some risk on the opportunity to be a buyer.

Final Thoughts
The case for AUD/JPY upside is compelling:
Silver is surging, nearing $39.00, with strong momentum and a bullish narrative.
Correlation is high (87.1%), and AUD/JPY often lags silver’s move.
Currency strength supports it, with AUD the strongest and JPY the weakest on the scale.

However, the seasonal data is a real mood killer with a 75% historical tendency for AUD/JPY to top out between late July and early August, caution is warranted.
For me, the strategy is clear:
I’ll watch for key support levels and price action confirming that the correlation is kicking in.
But I won’t ignore seasonality; any bullish setup needs tight risk management.
This is a great example of why cross-market analysis works, but also why no single correlation is bulletproof. Silver may be the canary in the coal mine, but price action in AUD/JPY will still be the final judge.
CRYPTO
What Does The GENIUS Bill Really Do For Crypto?
It’s been a whirlwind week in politics, but while everyone was distracted by scandals and sensational headlines, something far more consequential slipped through almost unnoticed. Donald Trump quietly signed into law a piece of legislation that could fundamentally alter how money moves around the world. The "Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act" - which the president jokingly claimed was named after him with its GENIUS acronym - represents more than just another crypto regulation. It’s potentially the first step in a financial revolution with global implications.
What makes this development particularly ironic is Trump’s own history with cryptocurrency. Just five years ago, he was publicly dismissing Bitcoin and other digital assets as scams. Now his administration is rolling out the red carpet for stablecoins - those digital tokens pegged to traditional currencies like the US dollar. The turnaround isn’t just ideological; it’s deeply personal. Since softening his stance on crypto during the last election campaign, Trump and his inner circle have launched their own cryptocurrency ventures, including a firm run by his sons that’s reportedly raised billions.
The timing of this legislation couldn’t be more significant. Stablecoins have evolved from niche crypto trading tools to major players in global finance, processing more transactions last year than payment giants like Visa. Their ability to move money across borders instantly and cheaply makes them attractive alternatives to traditional banking. But their growing importance goes beyond convenience. These digital tokens have quietly become crucial supporters of the US financial system, with major stablecoins now holding more US government debt than many sovereign nations.
This development comes at a critical moment for American economic policy. As countries like China reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds in favor of gold, stablecoins are emerging as unexpected buyers of last resort for US debt. With the national debt surpassing $37 trillion and interest payments becoming increasingly burdensome, this new source of demand could provide much-needed relief. But it also raises uncomfortable questions about whether the US is becoming dependent on the very cryptocurrency industry it once scorned to maintain its financial stability.
The potential consequences extend far beyond America’s borders. If stablecoins continue their rapid growth, they could help prop up the US dollar’s global dominance at a time when many nations are seeking alternatives. Yet this comes with its own set of risks. A system where stablecoins play a central role in supporting government debt could create dangerous new vulnerabilities, especially given the lack of transparency at some major issuers. The collapse of Terra Luna’s stablecoin just a few years ago showed how quickly things can unravel when confidence evaporates.
What emerges from all this is a complex picture where financial innovation, government policy, and personal interests intersect in ways that could reshape global economics. While the legislation promises greater oversight and stability for cryptocurrencies, its ultimate impact may be to cement the dollar’s position through unconventional means. For ordinary investors and consumers watching these developments unfold, the challenge will be distinguishing between genuine financial progress and what might simply be a new way to sustain an increasingly debt-dependent system.
GAMES
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ANSWER
Answer: Crude Oil $WTI ( ▲ 1.75% )