Good morning. The first ETF ever created was SPY, launched in 1993 to track the S&P 500. At the time, many thought it was “too simple” to catch on.

Today, SPY is one of the most traded securities in the world. Simplicity wins more often than people think.

-Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor

MARKETS

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

NEWS

Inflation’s ticking higher again in Japan and traders are starting to pay attention. The latest CPI data showed core inflation rising to 2.9% in September, marking the first uptick since May and keeping pressure on both policymakers and the newly appointed Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi.

For a country that’s battled decades of deflation, this isn’t just a data point, it’s a wake-up call.

The market’s immediate reaction? The yen found some strength, but not enough to shake off its bearish structure entirely.

The rise in “core” inflation which includes energy but excludes fresh food came in exactly as forecasted. But the “core-core” gauge, which strips out both food and energy, actually eased to 3% from 3.3%. That means the headline bump might be more about energy and cost pass-through than a broad inflation surge.

Still, inflation’s been above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for 41 straight months, a streak that’s stretching patience at the BOJ.

Takaichi’s first challenge as Prime Minister is already taking shape: inflation control. Experts are calling this her “litmus test.” She’s reportedly preparing a ¥13.9 trillion stimulus package (≈ $92 billion) to help households handle rising costs while supporting key industries.

But politics and monetary policy rarely move in sync. The BOJ remains cautious, Deputy Governor Uchida recently said the bank could raise rates again if data stays on course.

On the charts, USD/JPY is trading near 152.97, holding just below a key resistance zone at 153.05 (see chart).

Technically, the trend remains bullish but with inflation heating up and policymakers hinting at action, we should stay alert for volatility spikes or surprise jawboning from Tokyo.

Japan’s inflation comeback is more than just a data blip, it’s a political and market narrative colliding. For Takaichi, it’s her first big test.

For us traders, USD/JPY near 153.00 is more than just resistance, it’s a crossroads between policy patience and market pressure.

-Shaun A

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TRADER INSIGHTS

The Mexican peso has been one of the standout performers of 2025, up roughly 10% against the USD so far this year. 

What’s behind the move? 

A powerful mix of carry trade demand, steady inflation, and U.S. rate-cut expectations.

Mexico’s economy has quietly become one of the most attractive carry trade destinations in global FX.

With the Banco de México’s benchmark rate still sitting at 7.50%, investors earn a juicy yield compared to 4% rates in the U.S.

When traders borrow in low-yield currencies (like JPY or CHF) and buy high-yielders like MXN, they pocket the interest difference — known as the carry.

As long as volatility stays low and U.S. yields continue to drift lower, the carry trade stays alive and USDMXN keeps grinding down.

The story isn’t just about Mexico, it's about what’s happening in the U.S. too.

The U.S. 2-year yield is now sitting near 3.5%, signaling that two rate cuts are likely coming in the next few months.

Markets are pricing in a softer Fed stance as inflation cools and unemployment edges higher.

If those trends continue, the USD could face more pressure.

That’s why speculative short positioning in USD/MXN has been growing steadily in recent weeks.

From a technical perspective, USD/MXN remains locked in a clear bearish structure, printing lower highs and lower lows throughout the year.

Carry trades can run for a long time… until they don’t. The key risk here? A spike in volatility or any shift in Banxico’s tone.

So far, the central bank has been cautious signaling it will cut rates slowly to avoid stoking inflation again. As long as Mexico stays relatively stable and the Fed keeps easing, the peso’s advantage remains intact.

But if U.S. data surprises to the upside or global risk sentiment turns, expect profit-taking to kick in fast.

The trade is simple and it’s been working:

As long as yields stay wide and volatility stays low, the peso remains one of 2025’s strongest plays.

-Jonathan Kibbler

WATCH

CHART BREAKDOWN OF THE DAY (EUR/USD)

DAILY TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NUGGET

TODAY’S MOST TRENDING MARKET NEWS (OCTOBER 24, 2025)

Bitcoin surged past $111,000, gaining ~2.4% amid optimism that a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could ease U.S.–China trade tensions and lift investor sentiment. (source:economictimes)

GAMES

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ANSWER

Answer: GBP/USD $GBPUSD ( ▼ 0.58% )