Good Morning. In 1973, the London Metal Exchange ran out of copper. The market went into a frenzy. Why? Because a mysterious trader (later nicknamed “Mr. 5%”) had quietly accumulated over half a million tonnes cornering nearly the entire global copper supply. The price exploded, the LME suspended trading, and it shook the metals markets for years.

Still think commodities are boring?

-Patrick Lewis, Jordon Mellor, Shaun A

MARKETS

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

MARKET ANALYSIS

If you’ve been trading long enough, you know when the dollar takes a breather, there’s usually more going on than meets the eye. Right now? The greenback’s cooling off slightly, but with NFP looming and Trump setting new deadlines for trade drama, this is not the time to snooze on price action.

We’ve got jobs data, tariff headlines, and global currency whiplash all coming together. Let’s break it down like a trader, fast, clear, and no fluff.

1. Dollar Softens as Traders Brace for NFP

Markets are treading water ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls. Traders are trimming risk, reducing dollar longs, and waiting for the print. Price action in USD/JPY dipped to 143.82, while EUR/USD edged up to 1.1385. It’s not a trend shift, it’s the market breathing before the sprint.

2. Trump’s 50% Tariff Clock Is Ticking

Today’s the deadline Trump set for new trade offers. It also marks the start of 50% duties on imported steel and aluminum. We’re in the middle of a macro minefield. A call with Xi Jinping could come this week, or not. But either way, headlines from Trump are still driving algo spikes.

3. JOLTS Surprise Saves the Dollar (Temporarily)

Earlier this week, a manufacturing slump dropped the dollar 0.8%. But then the JOLTS job openings came in hot, sparking a near full rebound. The takeaway is that this market wants to be bullish on USD, but it needs strong data to justify it.

4. Eyes on ADP Ahead of NFP Friday

The ADP employment report is due later today. With low forecasts baked in, any upside surprise could spike USD and yields fast. Keep your calendar open, and your stops tighter. The real show starts Friday, but today’s print could set the tone.

5. Global Currencies Are Still Watching the U.S.

The Aussie held steady near 0.6460 as traders waited for GDP numbers. Meanwhile, the South Korean won strengthened 0.2% after liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung’s win. Even with global political noise, it’s still U.S. data that’s driving most charts.

The dollar’s not tanking, it’s reloading. And whether it rips higher or tanks into Friday depends entirely on how this week’s data lands.

Volatility isn’t coming. It’s already here.

If you’re trading USD pairs or anything macro-sensitive, now’s not the time to wing it.

Prep for whipsaws and plan your risk. Trade like it’s NFP week, because it is.

-Shaun A

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MARKET ANALYSIS

The crypto markets are now finding themselves in uncharted territory, as the current altcoin bear market surpasses 1,200 frustrating days. This makes it both the longest and most severe downturn in crypto history. The huge downturn has made even veteran traders question traditional market cycles, particularly as Bitcoin continues breaking records. Altcoins meanwhile are hanging 40% below their all-time cumulative highs. What began as a typical post-bull market correction has transformed into a full-scale capital drought for alternative cryptocurrencies. If you’re finding your patience and conviction tested, rest assured you are not alone.

Analysts have identified several disturbing, and frankly quite depressing metrics that underscore the severity of the altcoin winter. The OTHERS/BTC ratio, which measures the combined market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies outside the top 10 against Bitcoin, has collapsed from 0.5 to a dismal 0.11 over this 1,247-day period. This represents a more prolonged and deeper contraction than the 945-day bear market that preceded the 2020-2021 bull run, suggesting we're witnessing a fundamental shift in market dynamics rather than just another cyclical downturn. Long time trader Crypto Dan presented an even less optimistic picture when analyzing different methodological parameters, calculating the current downturn at 1,650 days of continuous pressure on altcoin valuations. This lengthy duration has shattered all historical precedents and made all of us psychologically exhausted among even the most committed holders as capital continues flowing disproportionately into Bitcoin. For everything else, we wait. 

You can hear the emotional toll on investors everywhere. Throughout every community that isn’t BTC, it feels flat. 

Captain Faibik (probably not his real name) describes the experience of holding through this extended winter:

"After three years of relentless decline, even the most fundamentally sound projects can't find bids. You analyze the tech, monitor development activity, track partnerships - none of it matters when liquidity evaporates."

This is the general vibe of the market: despair. With many retail investors like yourself capitulating after multiple failed breakout attempts. The TOTAL3 index, which tracks the total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH, shows altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin by 78% since November 2021, marking the worst relative performance in crypto history and leaving many wondering if the traditional altcoin market cycle model remains valid.

But it’s not completely hopeless! Because beneath the surface of this prolonged downturn, several structural changes suggest potential catalysts for reversal. Institutional interest, having first focused exclusively on Bitcoin through ETF products, is beginning to explore smaller-cap digital assets as the crypto investment thesis matures. Recent 13F filings reveal hedge funds cautiously testing positions in select large-cap alts like Solana and Chainlink, while venture capital firms sit on billions of dollars worth of soon-to-unlock investments from the 2021-2022 funding boom. These technical and capital flow dynamics create what some analysts describe as a coiled spring scenario, ie the kind of reversal where things really explode!

The debate among market watchers now isn’t really on whether altcoins will recover, but how different that recovery might look from historical patterns. Some suggest the next altseason could extend far beyond the typical 300-day window to accommodate institutional participation, potentially lasting 18-24 months as professional capital gradually discovers and allocates to the space. Others point to modeling that indicates the TOTAL3 index could appreciate 1,500-2,000% from current levels if it follows the extended basing pattern established during this record-setting bear market. What seems increasingly clear is that leadership in the next cycle may come from fundamentally different sectors than previous runs, with real-world asset tokenization and institutional-grade protocols potentially replacing the retail-driven narratives of ICOs and DeFi that dominated past cycles.

But a big contingent of skeptics warn that any altcoin resurgence might represent a final "blow-off top" before a broader crypto winter. Historical patterns show the last three cycles all ended with altcoin dominance peaking just as Bitcoin began its final parabolic move, suggesting that what many hope will be a new beginning could instead mark the end of the current macro cycle. This tension between bullish and bearish interpretations creates a complex landscape for investors trying to position themselves appropriately after such an extended period of underperformance.

For those navigating these extreme and extremely depressing conditions, several strategic approaches have emerged from the wreckage of the past three years. Dollar-cost averaging into fundamentally sound projects trading at 75% or more below their all-time highs allows investors to build positions while acknowledging the possibility of further downside. Monitoring venture capital unlock schedules helps avoid projects facing imminent dilution from early investors finally able to exit their positions. Tracking stablecoin liquidity provides clues about potential buying power waiting on the sidelines, as Tether's market cap expansion has historically preceded altcoin rallies. Perhaps most crucially, watching Bitcoin dominance levels for a potential break below 45% could signal the long-awaited capital rotation into altcoins that many have been anticipating.

As the market stands today, altcoins represent both the greatest risk and potential reward in the crypto ecosystem. The extended bear market has accomplished its Darwinian purpose, washing out weak hands and overleveraged speculators while leaving valuations at levels that could either presage generational buying opportunities or signal permanent capital impairment for all but a handful of projects. The coming months will test whether this unprecedented bear market was simply setting the stage for an equally unprecedented bull run, or whether the crypto ecosystem has fundamentally changed in ways that permanently disadvantage smaller-cap digital assets. What remains undeniable is that after 1,200 days of pain, any meaningful altcoin resurgence will create seismic wealth transfer opportunities for those positioned correctly when the tides finally turn.

-Patrick Lewis

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