Good morning. The world’s largest gold bar weighs 250 kilograms (551 pounds) and is worth over $17 million at today’s prices. It’s on display at the Toi Gold Museum in Japan, visitors can even touch it.
Proof that sometimes, gold really does shine brightest when it’s too heavy to lift.
-Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
MARKET ANALYSIS
Gold Bulls Aren’t Done Yet
Gold’s breakout run to new all-time highs above $3,700 finally slowed this week, with the metal hovering near $3,683 on Wednesday.
Sellers have stepped in to book profits, while the U.S. dollar has staged a modest rebound. But let’s be clear, this doesn’t look like gold topping out. To me at least, it looks like a market pausing before the next move, with the Fed’s policy decision set to light the spark.
Here’s what you need to know:
1. Fed Risk Front and Center
The market is fully priced for a 25 bps rate cut from the Fed later today, with traders also leaning toward more cuts before year-end. What matters now is Powell’s press conference and the Fed’s updated projections. A dovish tone gives gold the green light to retest $3,703 and beyond. A surprise hawkish tilt could drag prices back into support zones, but the broader easing bias remains gold’s friend.
2. Dollar Bounce is Just Positioning
The U.S. Dollar Index has inched higher from its early-July lows, boosted by stronger-than-expected Retail Sales (+0.6%) on Tuesday. But this looks more like repositioning than a new uptrend.
Ahead of the Fed, traders are trimming risk. The fact that gold is holding steady even with a firmer dollar says plenty about underlying demand.
3. Technicals Still Favor Bulls
Gold’s structure continues to lean bullish. The immediate resistance sits at $3,703, and a clean break above that level would likely trigger the next leg higher toward $3,750. On the downside, $3,674 acts as the first layer of support, keeping buyers in control intraday.
Below that, the $3,624 zone is the key area to watch, dips into this region should attract fresh buying interest. Even in the case of a deeper pullback, the $3,562–$3,500 zone remains a strong base. Unless this floor is broken, the broader uptrend stays intact.
The breakout from the long $3,426–$3,500 consolidation range is still holding, which suggests that buyers are simply waiting for the right levels to reload.
4. The Path of Least Resistance
Gold isn’t breaking down, it’s consolidating. As long as the market respects the $3,624–$3,600 zone, the bias stays higher. If Powell leans dovish, $3,703 is just the first checkpoint. Momentum could easily push toward $3,750, where traders will reassess.
My Takeaway
From where I sit, this is a buy-the-dip market. Gold has pulled back slightly under $3,700, but the bigger picture hasn’t changed: the breakout is intact, supports are layered beneath, and safe-haven demand is alive.
Unless the Fed delivers a real shock, every dip into $3,624–$3,600 still looks like opportunity, not danger. The bulls aren’t done, they’re just waiting for Powell’s signal.
Fact-based news without bias awaits. Make 1440 your choice today.
Overwhelmed by biased news? Cut through the clutter and get straight facts with your daily 1440 digest. From politics to sports, join millions who start their day informed.
TRADER INSIGHTS
Retail Traders Are Getting F***ed
There’s a problem with the retail trading space and we aren’t naive to it.
We jump into this complex trading world with little to no knowledge and expect the outcomes to be great. We look at a chart, see that it’s been going up for weeks and weeks and think to ourselves…
“This can’t go on forever…”
So we sell it, and we continue to do this until we get frustrated and end up risking everything once we’ve become battered and bruised, only to get steamrolled.
Right now is no different.
Retail positioning shows traders are heavily short on gold. They’re betting on the top. They are indeed getting churned up.
Why do we do this?
The retail playbook usually goes something like this:
Price rallies.
We are short because we think it’s too high.
Price keeps rallying.
We continue to be short.
It keeps going.
We panic and reverse our positions.
The market reverses.
This is a vicious cycle which is why 70-90% of retail traders fail.
How to avoid getting steamrolled
If we want to avoid the pain of being on the wrong side of the market more than not, we need to put some work in. Here are 4 steps to do.
Research before you trade. Don’t just look at charts over and over again. They are driven by multiple factors. Start with fundamentals, interest rate differentials and bonds.
Respect momentum. Just because a market has rallied doesn’t mean it’s due to fall. The market can remain unpredictable.
Pick your spots. Instead of blindly fighting the trend, wait and be patient. A reversal could form but you need to wait for a shift first.
Use tools. I don’t mean indicators, I mean sentiment tools and macro tools to help you understand what’s going on. Be sure to test these tools by looking at examples.
Will Gold Keep Going?
Yeah, probably.
Global uncertainty, central bank demand, investor flows, inflation worries. Are all pointing to upside in metals.
Not to mention the money supply is heading up, more money printing will put more money into the economy and that could see an increase in inflation.
Now I’m not saying it can’t turn, but the fundamentals may have to shift somewhat for a serious reversal.
Thinking out loud
This is why I became an analyst, it’s why I became the host of Market Wake Up with Jord. Our vision was to pass on our mistakes, our knowledge, others knowledge to help prepare traders for the beast that is the market.
WATCH
Here’s How Much I Spent Traveling to Perth as a Day Trader
GAMES
Trading Brain Training
I’m pulled from the earth, not grown from seed,
Industry and hedgers both call me a need.
From skyscrapers to wires, I make my stand,
My price reflects the strength of demand.
What Am I?
GET TO IT
.🦖 Watch Professional Traders trade live in London
🦖 Get funded as a trader with up to $4,000,000.
🦖 Do a super quick challenge that will have missive impacts on your results.
🦖 Check out these recommended trading tools.
🦖 Understand how Market Makers work
ANSWER
Answer: Copper $HG_F ( 0.0% )