Good morning. In 1928, the New York Stock Exchange introduced the first-ever daily stock index, which tracked 50 leading companies. It was the precursor to today’s S&P 500.
What began as a handful of tickers is now the benchmark traders watch worldwide.
-Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
MARKET ANALYSIS
The 3 Big Events That Could Break Next Week
Next week’s calendar is short but loaded.
For us traders, these are the kind of events that can make or break setups. The U.S. jobs report, services data, and Australia’s GDP with RBA commentary will all shape how markets trade into September.
Here’s what you need to know and why it matters:
1. U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep 5)
The main event next week would be the NFP.
NFP will test whether the Fed can keep playing cautious or if the labor market is finally softening enough to speed up cuts. Job creation, wages, and the unemployment rate will be key. A strong report keeps the dollar bid and makes gold vulnerable. A weak print does the opposite, selling the dollar and reviving risk appetite.
2. ISM Services PMI (Sep 4)
Services are still the backbone of the U.S. economy, and this report has been sending mixed signals.
A stronger read suggests the U.S. can absorb tariffs and rate pressure, which boosts yields and the dollar. A weak print feeds growth concerns, keeps Fed cut bets alive, and helps gold push higher.
3. Australia GDP + RBA (Sep 3)
Australia releases Q2 GDP just before RBA Governor Bullock speaks.
Exports have held up, but domestic demand has been patchy. A weaker number plus a dovish RBA could drag AUD/USD lower, especially if China headlines stay negative. A surprise upside read would test shorts and potentially squeeze the pair higher.
Quick Technical Outlooks
USD (DXY) $DXY ( 0.0% )
The dollar index is holding near recent highs. If NFP and ISM come in strong, DXY could retest 100.00. Weak numbers could see a pullback toward 98.80 support.
Gold (XAU/USD) $XAUUSD ( 0.0% )
Gold is consolidating around $3,300–$3,430. A dovish tilt from Powell or weak U.S. data could reopen $3,440–$3,500 as resistance. On the downside, a strong NFP could push it toward $3,300, with $3,250 as the next test.
AUD/USD $AUDUSD ( ▲ 0.19% )
Takeaway
The calendar may look light, but these three catalysts will set the tone across FX, commodities, and indices. For us traders, the strategy is clear: stay patient, respect levels, and let the data call the shots.
Remember, survival and structure matter more than predicting the exact print.
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FOREX
Is GBPJPY A Sell?
The popular forex pair has reached a strong level of resistance, but is it time to sell the pair?
Here’s my thesis.
What’s going on with the JPY?
Honestly, not much right now. The Japanese Yen has weakened over the last few months after having a super strong start to the year. Rate hike hopes faded, and the BoJ made it fairly apparent that rates wouldn’t move higher for a while. This tied in with the bullish stock markets saw a risk on environment return.
From an economic data point, it’s not been great, retail sales have softened, industrial output has cooled and Tokyo CPI which I’m keeping a close eye on is forecast to ease for a third straight month. Not really the conditions we want to see for a central bank to hike interest rates.
However, the US-Japan yield spread has fallen to around 263 basis points, the lowest in three years. This is a big point because the Japanese Yen tends to strengthen when the spread narrows.
What about the GBP?
The British Pound on the other hand has shown some surprising resilience.
This came after the Bank of England’s tone shifted slightly more hawkish to try and push inflation pressures lower. Odds of a rate cut this year have fallen from to 40% from nearly 100% supporting the GBP. However there’s a real risk of stagflation in the UK and this could be damaging.
UK yields have ticked higher against the US yields which gives a slight edge to GBPUSD higher.
What does this all mean for GBPJPY?
Well, if we take a look at the chart, we are trading within a large trading range between the highs of 200.00 and lows of 184.50. On the subject of these fundamentals, we could see the range remain intact.
For me I like the idea of shorts around these range highs, with stops well above the 200.00 level. This gives me an appropriate stop if I were to be wrong. Targets on the way down could be the key levels of support like 194.50, or 189.50.
If the price were to breach through the range highs, then we may see a GBPJPY much higher towards the end of the year.
As always, please go and do your own research, this is not financial advice just my own trading idea.
GAMES
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ANSWER
Answer: Support & Resistance