Good morning. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to set U.S. interest rates. But a single surprise decision can move trillions, across currencies, bonds, and stocks, within seconds.
It’s the one calendar event where every trader, from Wall Street to retail, stops and listens.
-Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
TRADER INSIGHTS
The Dollar’s Fate Hinges on 3 Events This Week
Some weeks give traders a clear roadmap. Others, like this one, throw everything into the mix at once.
Between U.S. retail sales, U.K. inflation, the Fed’s September decision, and a Bank of England rate call, it’s a calendar stacked with catalysts.
For us FX traders, this isn’t just another week, it’s one that could reset the trend for both the dollar and sterling.
Here’s what you need to know:
1. U.S. Retail Sales (Tuesday)
The dollar gets its first test with August retail sales. Forecasts point to a modest gain (+0.4% core, +0.2% headline). A stronger print tells the Fed the U.S. consumer is still spending, reinforcing the “soft landing” story. But a miss could feed the argument that growth is rolling over just as the Fed is cutting rates, a bearish setup for the dollar.
For EUR/USD, this release is the prelude to Wednesday–Thursday’s storm. A hot number favors the dollar staying bid, while a weak one risks triggering a squeeze higher in euro and gold before the Fed.
2. FOMC Decision + Press Conference (Thursday)
This is the main event. The Fed is expected to cut the Federal Funds Rate from 4.50% to 4.25%. But the cut itself isn’t the story, it’s the dot plot and Powell’s tone.
If projections signal more cuts ahead, the dollar could take a heavy hit, dragging DXY back toward 102. But if Powell insists that easing will be gradual, markets may need to unwind their aggressive bets. Volatility here won’t just hit the dollar, gold, equities, and yields are all in play.
3. Bank of England Decision (Thursday)
The BOE faces its own credibility test. Inflation is stuck at 3.8%, but growth has been weak. Rates are expected to stay at 4.00%, yet the vote split will tell the real story.
A hawkish dissent (votes for a hike) could give sterling a lift, especially if the Fed is dovish.
A dovish tilt opens the door for GBP/USD to slip back toward the 1.15 handle.
The Fed–BOE one-two punch on Thursday could set the tone for GBP/USD for the rest of the year.
My Weekly Process
This is a week for patience, not noise.
What could work well: Stick to dollar and sterling setups.
What to expect: Sharp whipsaws into the Fed, trend clarity only after Thursday.
Focus for this week: Journal reactions, not just results. Wait for the market to tip its hand, don’t guess it.
(Note: This is simply my personal process when trading big news events. It’s not financial advice, and I encourage you to always do your own research and make decisions that fit your own strategy.)
My Takeaway
This is one of those rare weeks where the market resets its narrative. Between the Fed and BOE, retail sales and CPI, every major currency is in play.
For us traders, the edge isn’t in guessing outcomes, it’s in waiting for the dust to settle and trading the reaction with conviction.
FOREX
Currency Strength & Weakness Analysis 15th September
After this past week we have seen some huge changes to the currency strength and weakness. Some of these moves could be sustained but some may need a little more of a push to keep going.
That being said we have some key data points coming up this which includes some of the following:
US Retail Sales and Interest Rate Decision. The USD could continue to come under pressure this week as key data points to negative economic pressures. Retail sales are forecast to fall from 0.5% to 0.2%. Interest rates are expected to be cut to 4.25% too.
Bank of Canada Interest Rates and CPI. The Consumer Price Index forecast to fall from 0.3% to 0.1% in line with the recent decline in oil prices. The central bank is forecast to cut rates from 2.75% to 2.50%.
In the UK the Bank of England is forecast to leave rates unchanged at 4.00%.
Let’s take a look at what to watch.
Strong Currencies
My currency strength meter highlights these currencies as the strongest as of last week:
AUD: The Australian dollar moved to the top of the pile, coming in at +7 from +2. This is something we documented a while back as the RBA may be forced to leave rates higher for longer if CPI fails to come in lower.
NZD: The New Zealand dollar moved from -4 to 2 as the markets remained risk on.
GBP: the British pound is technically strong but has begun to reverse from +5 to now just +3, this shows us that the weakness could be coming into the market.
Weak Currencies
Looking at the opposite side of the strength meter now, these are the weakest of last week:
CAD: The Canadian dollar is a weak currency at -7, rate cuts and lower oil prices could see the weakness continue.
USD: The USD could continue to remain weak, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates with the CME Fed Watch Tool pointing to a 100% chance of a cut.
Markets to watch
Based off of the above these are the currency pairs on my trading watchlist:
Bullish | Bearish |
AUDCAD | |
AUDUSD | |
NZDCAD | |
NZDUSD | |
GBPCAD | |
GBPUSD |
The Australian dollar is the strongest currency and if the risk on sentiment remains could be the one to watch, AUDCAD and GBPAUD looks good for trading opportunities this week.
As always traders, do your own research and let’s see how this week goes.
GAMES
Trading Brain Training
Eight voices guide the market’s fate,
A meeting moves the dollar’s weight.
Hawks or doves, their tone decides,
One sentence shifts the trading tides.
What Am I?
GET TO IT
.🦖 Get funded as a trader with up to $4,000,000.
🦖 Check out these recommended trading tools.
🦖 Understand how Market Makers work
🦖 Do a super quick challenge that will have missive impacts on your results.
🦖 Watch Professional Traders trade live in London
ANSWER
Answer: The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)