Good morning. Traders talk about the “Halloween Effect”a real market anomaly showing that stocks historically perform better between November and April than from May to October.
The saying goes: “Sell in May and go away… come back on Halloween and play.” Even markets have their ghost stories.
-Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
TRADER INSIGHTS
Powell’s Halloween Trick: A Rate Cut with a Warning
Halloween’s here, and Jerome Powell might be the one handing out tricks instead of treats.
The Fed just delivered another rate cut but Powell’s message wasn’t sweet at all. He’s trying to keep everyone happy: markets begging for more easing, Fed members getting divided, and a legacy that’s starting to feel shaky as his term ticks down.
For us traders, that means one thing: this isn’t just a policy story anymore, it’s a power struggle wrapped in politics, pressure, and timing.
So before you jump on any early “December cut” trades, remember… Powell’s not the only one at the table anymore.
Here’s What You Need to Know
1. The Cut Came But So Did the Caveat
🚨BREAKING🚨
🇺🇸 FED CUT RATES BY 25 BPS.
— #Ash Crypto (#@Ashcryptoreal)
6:00 PM • Oct 29, 2025
The Fed trimmed rates by 25 basis points, dropping the benchmark to 4.00%. Everyone expected it.
What they didn’t expect was Powell’s tone, cautious, borderline defensive, and full of warnings. He basically told markets: “Don’t assume December’s a done deal.”
Well from the looks of it, he’s not your friendly neighborhood dove anymore.
2. Markets Aren’t Listening (Yet)
Even after Powell’s tough talk, traders still priced in a 60-70% chance of another cut in December.
Bond yields popped the 10-year back above 4%, 2-year near 3.6%, while stocks slipped. Classic risk-off reaction.
It’s like Powell yelled “Careful!” and the market just shrugged and kept running.
3. The Fed’s Family Feud
The real drama’s inside the boardroom.
Powell’s stuck playing referee, and with the government shutdown clouding data, every call he makes will be second-guessed.
Add in Trump scouting Powell’s replacement? Yeah that’s pressure with a capital P.
My Takeaway
Forget the haunted houses, the real scare this Halloween is at the Federal Reserve.
Powell’s trying to defend his credibility, calm markets, and manage his own team, all before the next FOMC showdown in December.
As traders, that means one thing: brace for mood swings.
Volatility is the treat; prediction is the trick.
Trade the reactions, not the speeches because when politics and policy mix, charts stop being polite.
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FOREX
USD/JPY: Why 158 Is More Than Just a Number
If you’ve been watching the charts lately, you’ve probably noticed that USD/JPY is creeping higher again, now approaching the 158 level.
Around these levels we may start to hear talk of “intervention”.
Let’s talk about it.
What it really means, and why retail traders should pay attention.
The Narrative: Strong USD, Weak JPY
Right now, the story is clear:
The Federal Reserve may be cutting soon, but U.S. yields are still much higher than Japan’s.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) remains the only major central bank holding negative real interest rates.
That gap makes the yen a funding currency, meaning traders borrow in yen to buy higher-yielding assets, a key driver of yen weakness.
So when you see USD/JPY pushing up toward 158 it’s a reflection of massive policy divergence between the Fed and the BOJ.
But there’s a limit to how far that can go before the BoJ steps in.
What Is “Intervention”?
When the yen gets too weak, Japan’s Ministry of Finance (not the BOJ directly) can intervene by selling U.S. dollars and buying yen in huge size.
This has happened before:
September 2022: USD/JPY was around 145 when Japan intervened and the price dropped nearly 600 pips.
October 2022: Another round around at 152, this time the price dropped over 500 pips.
These moves are often sudden and violent, catching late buyers completely off guard.
It’s not the kind of volatility you want to be on the wrong side of.
As USD/JPY creeps closer to 158, the trade becomes less about chasing momentum and more about reading policy pressure.
When Tokyo starts getting nervous, the market usually gives us a warning, sharp intraday reversals, official comments, or “sources” headlines about “watching FX markets closely.”
That’s your cue to step back, manage exposure, and let the dust settle before rejoining the trend.
Because when it comes to yen intervention the first move isn’t the opportunity.
The second one is.
WATCH
CHART BREAKDOWN OF THE DAY (BTC/USD)
BTCUSD trades around $109,300, bouncing from its rising trendline and 200-day SMA. Support is seen at $106,100 and $101,200, while resistance sits at $114,000 and $124,400. As long as price holds above the purple trendline, the broader uptrend remains intact.
DAILY TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NUGGET
“Small losses are tuition, not tragedy.” Every stopped-out trade is part of the cost of learning to execute better. Accepting them with calm keeps you in the game long enough for your edge to play out.
TODAY’S MOST TRENDING MARKET NEWS (OCTOBER 31, 2025)
credits: REUTERS/Manami Yamada/File Photo
The Japanese yen clawed back some ground after hitting a nine-month low, as Japan’s new finance minister issued her strongest warning yet on “disorderly” moves in the foreign-exchange market and signalled closer monitoring of speculative flows. (source:reuters)
GAMES
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ANSWER
Answer: NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls)