Good morning. The Bank of England, founded in 1694, is the second-oldest central bank in the world, created to fund a war against France. Back then, it raised £1.2 million (a huge sum at the time) in just 12 days.
It’s safe to say the BoE was literally born out of debt and has been managing it ever since.
-Jonathan Kibbler, Shaun A, Jordon Mellor
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
MARKET ANALYSIS
⚠️UK Unemployment Just Hit 5%! Here’s Why the Pound Could Be in Trouble
UK unemployment rose to 5.0% in Q3, the highest level since mid-2021and crucially, above forecasts.
The data showed joblessness rising by 117,000, total employment falling for the first time since early 2024, and the number of unemployed per vacancy climbing to 2.5, the highest since 2015.
Markets didn’t take it well sterling weakened across the board as traders priced in the likelihood that the Bank of England will cut rates in December, with odds now above 80%.
The WHY
The UK labour market is clearly cooling.
Job losses concentrated in government and retail, showing broad-based weakness.
Wages growth slowed to 4.8% from 5%, the weakest since 2020.
Private sector pay is softening sharply.
The data signals a familiar problem. Slowing growth, rising unemployment, but still-elevated inflation.
In macro terms, this is stagflation risk.
How It Could Impact the Bank of England Decision
Before this report, the BoE was already walking a tightrope.
Governor Bailey and Chief Economist Huw Pill have both hinted at patience, acknowledging progress on inflation but warning against cutting “too far, too fast.”
Now, with unemployment rising faster than expected, that tone is likely to tilt decisively dovish.
Markets are now pricing:
80% chance of a rate cut in December
A total of two cuts by mid-2026
The BoE has been on the path of holding rates, but this data makes it far more likely we’ll see the first move lower before year-end especially if GDP and CPI continue to cool.
If GBP Weakens, What Can We Trade It Against?
Here’s how I’m thinking about it from a trader’s perspective:
GBPCHF: A classic risk-off and policy divergence play.
The Swiss franc remains firm as a safe haven even after the SNB cut rates. GBPCHF has been trending lower and could accelerate if UK data continues to soften.GBPAUD: The RBA remains moderately hawkish, holding rates steady at 3.60% with inflation still sticky. This divergence sets up a potential carry and momentum opportunity.
GBPUSD: The USD is still benefiting from its “safety bid” amid global uncertainty. As long as the Fed remains cautious but not outright dovish, GBPUSD could grind lower toward the 1.3000 handle.
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TRADER INSIGHTS
BoE Say the Cut Is Coming
The British Pound is back on the defensive this Wednesday, sliding below 1.3150 as traders start to price in a rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE) in December.
The pair has been under pressure for two straight days now, with investors reacting more to policy expectations than fresh data.
Basically, the market’s saying: “We think the BoE blinks first.”
Let’s break it down.
Here’s What You Need to Know
1. Traders Expect the BoE to Cut Rates Soon
GBP/USD dropped toward 1.3140 as bets grew for a 25-basis-point cut to 3.75% next month. Major institutions like Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and UBS now expect the BoE to ease, that’s a big shift in sentiment.
2. BoE Policymaker Signals Inflation Worries, Not Relief
Megan Greene from the BoE said she’s not convinced policy is restrictive enough yet. That means inflation still worries them, even as markets expect a cut. It’s a messy message, traders are reading between the lines.
3. U.S. Dollar Finds Support from Washington News
The dollar got a small boost after the U.S. Senate passed a bill to reopen the government. That move cleared the way for fresh data releases, and risk sentiment improved slightly. But remember, the greenback’s strength here is more about stability than momentum.
4. Soft U.S. Jobs Data Still Points to Fed Easing
ADP employment data showed slower job growth, private employers cut more jobs, feeding rate-cut bets on the U.S. side too. The CME FedWatch Tool now prices in a 63% chance of a Fed cut in December. So both the Fed and BoE are moving in the same dovish direction.
My Takeaway
GBP/USD is sitting in a tug-of-war between two softening central banks. The BoE looks ready to cut, but the Fed isn’t exactly hawkish either.
For us traders, this isn’t the time to chase moves, it’s the time to watch how GBP reacts near 1.3010, the key support zone on the chart.
If it holds, we might see a bounce. If it breaks, momentum could accelerate lower fast.
Either way, we stay patient and precise. The next move belongs to the BoE.
WATCH
CHART BREAKDOWN OF THE DAY (NZD/USD)
NZD/USD stays bearish below 0.5880, hovering near key support at 0.5630. A break lower could drag the pair toward 0.5550 and 0.5490, while a bounce may face resistance at 0.5790. Bias remains bearish unless price reclaims 0.6060.
POLL
DAILY TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NUGGET
“Master the art of doing nothing when there’s nothing to do.” Most traders lose money not because they lack skill, but because they can’t sit still. The ability to wait through uncertainty, without forcing trades, is what keeps consistency alive when others get shaken out.
TODAY’S MOST TRENDING MARKET NEWS (NOVEMBER 12, 2025)
credits: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
The Japanese yen dropped to a nine-month low as the U.S. dollar recovered amid expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in December, while Japanese officials stepped in with verbal intervention to stem the slide. (source:reuters)
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