Good morning. In 2008, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to near zero for the first time in history, launching the era of ultra-loose monetary policy.

It was the birth of “easy money” and the fuel behind one of the longest bull markets ever.

-Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor

MARKETS

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

NEWS

Here’s what every trader is talking about today: the clash between the White House and the Federal Reserve is heating up again. President Trump has asked a federal appeals court to clear the way for him to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and he wants it done before the FOMC meets next week.

This isn’t just politics. For markets, the fight over Fed independence raises real questions about rate policy, credibility, and the dollar.

Trump’s lawyers filed with the D.C. Circuit Court on Thursday, asking for permission to remove Cook ahead of Tuesday’s FOMC meeting. They want a ruling by Monday, just before the Fed gathers to decide whether to cut rates.

Cook, a Biden appointee, has voted alongside Powell in resisting Trump’s push for immediate cuts. The lower court ruling earlier this week blocked her removal, with Judge Jia Cobb stressing that “the public interest in Fed independence” outweighs political maneuvering. The appeal tests whether that shield will hold.

The FOMC is widely expected to cut rates next week, but the scale and credibility of that move could be shaken if Trump reshapes the Board mid-meeting. Traders know this isn’t just about one seat, it’s about whether policy decisions are being driven by data or political pressure.

The dollar index (DXY) has been consolidating near 97. A ruling that weakens Fed independence could undermine the dollar longer-term, even if rate cuts support it short-term. FX markets will be watching headlines closely into Monday’s deadline.

EUR/USD is holding steady around 1.1725, trading in a tight range as markets wait for clarity. The pair has strong support near 1.1710–1.1685, with deeper backing at the 50-day SMA (1.1658). On the upside, resistance looms near 1.1800, with the bigger magnet sitting at 1.1900 if momentum builds.

A dovish Fed outcome next week could be the catalyst that finally unlocks the upside, pushing EUR/USD toward 1.1800–1.1900. But if Trump scores a legal win against Cook, undermining confidence in Fed independence, the dollar could catch a bid and drag the pair back toward 1.1650–1.1480. For now, it’s a coiled chart, building energy, waiting for politics and the Fed to decide direction.

Markets hate uncertainty, and this battle delivers plenty. It’s not just about Lisa Cook, it’s about how much independence the Fed really has heading into a critical rate decision.

For us traders, this means one thing: don’t ignore the headlines. The outcome could tip the dollar, gold, and risk sentiment before CPI and the FOMC even hit the wires.

-Shaun A

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TRADER INSIGHTS

If you hang around trading communities for a while you may hear people talking about the put-to-call ratio. But what is it? And why should you as a retail forex trader care?

If you’re familiar with options trading, then this would be a simple answer, but for those trading fx or indices via CFDs well maybe not so. 

SImply put, it’s the ratio that compares put options with call options. 

A put option is a financial instrument that gives the holder the right to sell an asset at a specified price, by a specified date. This is seen as a negative bet on an asset. 

A call option is the opposite and is the right to buy an asset at a specified price, by a specified date. This is seen as a positive bet on an asset. 

All in all, the put-to-call ratio is a measure of puts vs calls in the market. 

If the put-to-call ratio is less than 1 it means there are more calls than puts and that often leads to a more bullish market. 

If the put-to-call ratio is greater than 1 it means that there are more puts than calls and often that can lead to a more bearish market. 

However, if we look at the data I prefer to use it when it reaches extremes. Let’s look at the example above, on the 9th April the ratio reached 1.06 this would normally be seen as a bearish indication, but look what happened to the price, it bottomed out and reversed. 

Currently the ratio sits at 0.86 and that means the market is more bullish than it is bearish at the moment. This is shown in the stock markets as they are all near enough breaching into all time highs. 

Does this mean it’s going to continue? Not necessarily, but it gives us a good view of what the market mindset is at the moment. 

-Jonathan Kibbler

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ANSWER

Answer: Rate Hike