In partnership with
Good morning. In 1609, the world’s first central bank, the Amsterdam Wisselbank, was established to stabilize trade and currency in the Netherlands. It became a model for modern banking systems.
From handwritten ledgers to high-frequency trades, the mission to keep markets stable hasn’t changed.
-Jonathan Kibbler, Shaun A, Jordon Mellor
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
TRADER INSIGHTS
Countdown to Friday! Trump, Putin, and a Market Time Bomb
There’s a major geopolitical risk event on the calendar this week that most retail traders should start paying attention to.
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, with a potential second meeting including Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy if progress is made.
Depending on the outcome, we could see big moves in gold, oil, and key safe-haven currencies, and that means opportunity.
Why This Meeting Matters for Markets
Potential Sanctions or Tariffs: Trump has hinted at “very severe consequences” if Putin refuses to agree to a ceasefire. This could include new economic sanctions, possibly targeting Russian energy.
Safe-Haven Flows: A failed meeting could spark flows into JPY and CHF, and potentially gold.
Oil Volatility: Any sanctions on Russian oil could push prices higher in the short term, as the supply chain could be disrupted.
Risk-On Rally if Positive: A breakthrough could see risk assets like the S&P 500 rally further on the good sentiment it will bring.
What I’m Thinking About
This is one of those events where you can plan both bullish and bearish setups ahead of time and react quickly to the outcome.
The key is to avoid over-leveraging before the meeting, but have alerts and technical levels ready so you can jump in when the market picks a direction.
One strategy I will be on a lookout for is the volatility spike setup. This is when the VIX rallies higher, and stock markets fall. In this scenario we often see a recovery come through as the VIX cools off.
Big investors are buying this “unlisted” stock
When the founder who sold his last company to Zillow for $120M starts a new venture, people notice. That’s why the same VCs behind Uber and eBay also backed Pacaso. They made $110M+ in gross profit to date. They even reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO. Now, you can join, too.
Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.
FOREX
Overbought but Still Climbing
GBP/USD is holding above 1.3550. The pair is gaining from renewed risk appetite and a weaker U.S. dollar after softer inflation data boosted expectations for Fed rate cuts. With no major U.S. data on the calendar today, traders are watching Fed speeches for clues.
Here’s What You Need to Know So Far:
1. Dovish Fed expectations are driving the move
July CPI came in slightly cooler than forecast, with annual inflation steady at 2.7% versus expectations of 2.8%. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, matching estimates. This has strengthened the case for multiple Fed rate cuts this year.
2. Rate cut odds have increased
The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 95.9% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points to a 400–425 bps range at its September 17, 2025 meeting, with only a 4.1% chance of a deeper 50 bps cut. This is up from 91.9% a week ago, reflecting stronger market conviction for a September move. A rate cut would likely add more downward pressure on the USD.
3. Risk sentiment is helping the pound
U.S. and European equity futures are in the green. The FTSE 100 is up about 0.2%. A stronger risk rally later today could keep the USD under pressure and push GBP/USD higher.
4. Technical picture leans bullish but overbought
GBP/USD is near 1.3580, testing the purple trendline and the 1.3590–1.3600 resistance area. This level also lines up with the July highs. If price moves higher, the next targets are 1.3640 and 1.3700. Above that is the year’s high at 1.3769.
On the 4-hour chart as well, RSI is close to 80, showing overbought conditions. Price is still above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, so the overall trend is up. But overbought readings mean there’s a higher chance of a short pullback or sideways move before another push higher.
Support is at 1.3540, then 1.3500 and 1.3460. If price drops further, 1.3385–1.3377 is the next zone to watch, with the 100-day moving average nearby. As long as price stays above these supports, the short-term bias remains bullish.
5. Short-term outlook favors the upside
Unless the Fed changes its tone or risk sentiment reverses, the bias stays to the upside. But with RSI stretched, traders should be ready for possible pullbacks toward support levels before another push higher.
The Takeaway
GBP/USD is climbing on softer U.S. inflation and growing Fed cut bets. Risk sentiment is providing extra fuel, but overbought signals suggest the rally could pause before testing higher resistance levels.
GAMES
Trading Brain Training
I’m not a stock, yet I shake them all.
A single print can make bulls stall.
Auctions, CPI—watch me spike or yield;
I’m a percent, not a price, but I run the field.
What Am I?
GET TO IT
🦖 Get funded as a trader with up to $4,000,000.
🦖 Check out these recommended trading tools.
🦖 Understand how Market Makers work.
🦖 Do a super quick challenge that will have missive impacts on your results.
🦖 Watch Professional Traders trade live in London
ANSWER
Answer: The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield