Good morning. During FOMC week, traders joke that markets “hold their breath.” Even tweets slow down before the rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, when a single word change in the Fed’s statement can move billions.

It’s not just a meeting, it’s Wall Street’s version of judgment day.

-Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor

MARKETS

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

TRADER INSIGHTS

Last week’s no-show left traders flying blind. With the U.S. government shutdown halting data releases, markets were left guessing and reacting to shadows. Now that Washington is partially back online, the long-awaited Non-Farm Payrolls report might finally land this Friday. The key word: might.

Even though the lights are back on in D.C., the data flow hasn’t fully recovered. The Unemployment Claims report (forecast: 225K vs 218K prior) will be the first test of how much damage the shutdown did to momentum.

If claims rise, it adds fuel to the “soft landing turning rough” narrative and may push yields lower especially if traders start pre-positioning for Friday’s jobs report. But any upside surprise could easily flip sentiment back toward a firmer dollar.

Before we even get to NFP, Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes could set the tone for everything that follows.

We want clarity above all else.

Was the Fed’s last rate cut just a one-off insurance move, or the start of a full easing cycle?

If the minutes reveal growing concern about labor weakness or inflation drifting lower, expect renewed talk of another 25-bps cut in October.

For gold, that could be the catalyst to finally break above $3,900. For USD, it’s a potential speed bump after a week of relative strength.

After the delay, this is the market’s make-up exam. Consensus sits at 52K jobs added, unemployment steady at 4.3%, and wages up 0.3% m/m.

But we aren’t just watching the numbers, we are watching the reaction.

A weak print could validate the Fed’s caution and revive bets for more cuts. A strong one, on the other hand, could make last month’s rate cut look premature and lift the dollar across the board.

Either way, with the data still labeled tentative, don’t expect a smooth Friday session.

This week isn’t just about whether NFP finally prints, it’s about how much faith the market still has in the data and the Fed’s game plan.

For me, it’s all about managing expectations. The FOMC minutes will shape the narrative, and NFP will test it.

Gold, oil, and USD are all in play but the smartest move this week might be staying patient while everyone else tries to front-run the comeback.

-Shaun A

You buy after CNBC reports the story.
Wall Street bought when Reddit mentions spiked 3,968%.

You buy after "strong earnings."
Wall Street bought when insiders loaded up $31M beforehand.

You buy after "analyst upgrades."
Wall Street bought when Congress filed their positions first.

The pattern is obvious: You get yesterday's news. They get tomorrow's signals.

While you're reading quarterly reports, professionals track Reddit sentiment, Congressional trades, and insider purchases in real-time.

But what if you had their data?

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_{Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk including possible loss of principal.}

FOREX

There’s been some decent moves for trend traders in the markets last week, but are some of these trends starting to show signs of weakness? 

With the US Government shutdown and a lack of CoT data, the currency strength meter is the only tool we can use as of now. 

The four key currencies at the moment all have now reached reversal zones, which means they are either extremely strong or extremely weak.

My currency strength meter highlights these currencies as the strongest as of last week:

Looking at the opposite side of the strength meter now, these are the weakest of last week:

Based off of the above these are the currency pairs on my trading watchlist:

Remember this is just a starting point, check in with the fundamentals and technicals and make sure you look for markets trending.

-Jonathan Kibbler

WATCH

CHART BREAKDOWN OF THE DAY (USD/JPY)

DAILY TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NUGGET

TODAY’S MOST TRENDING MARKET NEWS (OCTOBER 6, 2025)

France’s political turmoil rocked markets, after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned just hours after his appointment, French equities plunged and the euro was slammed. The CAC 40 sank ~2%, bank stocks dropped 4–5%, and the euro slid 0.7% against the dollar. (source: reuters)

GAMES

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ANSWER

Answer: Slippage