Good morning. The U.S. economic calendar is so market-moving that traders worldwide set alarms around it. Reports like CPI, NFP, and FOMC minutes are often released at 8:30 a.m. or 2:00 p.m. ET, times chosen to hit just before or after Wall Street opens.
Basically, even the clock is designed to move the market.
-Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
MARKET ANALYSIS
NFP Friday Could Decide October
It’s Monday, and the week ahead already feels loaded.
After last week’s chop, traders finally get clarity with three heavyweight events this week: the RBA’s decision, U.S. manufacturing data, and the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls.
These are the kind of releases that can flip sentiment in hours, and they’ll set the tone for October’s trading.
Here’s what awaits us this week:
1. RBA Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday, Sept 30, with rates expected to stay at 3.60%. That part isn’t exciting, but the statement always is. The RBA has been walking a fine line between sticky inflation and a slowing economy, so the tone could easily tip AUD pairs into volatility.
I’ll be watching how AUD/USD reacts during Asia, often the cleanest move comes a few hours after the statement, not immediately.
2. ISM Manufacturing PMI
The U.S. ISM is due Wednesday, Oct 1, and it’s been stuck near contraction. Forecast is 49.1, not a big improvement from last month’s 48.7. Anything below 50 keeps recession chatter alive and could weigh on the dollar. But if it surprises to the upside, the DXY gets a kick, and risk assets could wobble. I like ISM because it tends to give an early “feel” for NFP later in the week.
3. Non-Farm Payrolls
The main event comes Friday, Oct 3. Expectations are for 51K jobs, after last month’s dismal 22K. Unemployment is seen at 4.3% with wages at 0.3%. This is the report that decides how far the Fed can push its rate-cut cycle. Strong jobs = USD bounce. Weak jobs = gold and majors rip higher. Either way, Friday is the day to trade with conviction, not hesitation.
My Weekly Process
I’m keeping things simple. My calendar this week has only three real focus points, RBA, ISM, and NFP. Everything else is noise, just my opinion 😐️
Midweek volatility could whip around, so I’ll keep sizes light until Friday. My plan is to journal not just the results but my own reactions, especially around NFP, since emotions tend to spike. The goal is fewer trades, more conviction, and letting the market show its hand before I step in.
My Takeaway
This week is all about timing. Don’t let the quiet start fool you, from the RBA on Tuesday to NFP on Friday, it’s a loaded five days. My focus will be to ride the momentum rather than fight it, keeping size controlled ahead of Friday’s jobs report. The setups will come, but patience pays more than forcing trades mid-week.
TRADER INSIGHTS
Currency Strength & Weakness for 29th September
Watching the Ryder Cup last night was a nervy one if you’re on the European side like me. The US looked down and out until a turn of momentum came around leading to a bit of resurgence from the US. Is the same for the currency?
The USD looked very much down and out, but according to the currency strength meter it’s making a resurgence.
Let’s take a look at what to watch.
Strong Currencies
My currency strength meter highlights these currencies as the strongest as of last week:
USD: Thursday was a key turning point for the USD, with strong numbers out of GDP, Core PCE Price Index and Unemployment claims. This saw many USD pairs change trend hence the scoring.
AUD: Despite coming in lower this week the AUD remains strong at +5, but this also could suggest a reversal so remain vigilant on this one.
Weak Currencies
Looking at the opposite side of the strength meter now, these are the weakest of last week:
NZD: The kiwi remains the weakest now at -5 in a key reversal zone, but the reversal doesn’t look on just yet.
GBP: Weakness in the GBP is starting to float through, you can see this on EURGBP as the market breaks the key 0.8700 level.
Markets to watch
Based off of the above these are the currency pairs on my trading watchlist:
Bullish | Bearish |
AUDNZD | NZDUSD |
GBPUSD | |
GBPAUD |
CHART BREAKDOWN OF THE DAY (AUD/USD)
AUD/USD is clinging to its ascending trendline support near 0.6550 after retreating from the 0.6680 resistance zone. The pair is still respecting its higher-low structure, suggesting bulls have not fully lost grip, but momentum looks cautious. Holding above 0.6540 keeps the door open for another push toward 0.6680 and possibly 0.6798, while a break below the trendline could drag price back toward 0.6287–0.6180 support levels.
DAILY TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NUGGET
Successful trading is about surviving first and thriving second.” The traders who last are the ones who protect their capital, avoid reckless risks, and focus on longevity. Growth only matters if you’re still in the game tomorrow.
TODAY’S MOST TRENDING MARKET NEWS (SEPTEMBER 29, 2025)
credits: Azad Lashkari/File Photo
Oil prices slipped as crude exports resumed from Iraq’s Kurdistan region after a 2½-year hiatus, and markets expect OPEC+ to approve a modest production hike in November. The additional supply and the restart of Kurdish flows have dampened the prior rally momentum. (source: reuters)
GAMES
Trading Brain Training
I’m not a storm, but I cause a rush,
One tweet or headline, markets flush.
Fast and wild, I come and go,
Profit or loss, you’ll never know.
What Am I?
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ANSWER
Answer: Volatility