Good morning. In 1973, the OPEC oil embargo sent crude prices soaring nearly 300% in just a few months, from $3 to over $12 a barrel. The shock rattled economies worldwide and reshaped energy markets for decades.

It was the moment oil proved it could move more than just markets, it could move history.

-Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor

MARKETS

How’s your favorite today?

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

MARKET ANALYSIS

This Crude Oil’s Rally Isn’t Random

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is climbing for the fourth straight session, holding above $65 and sitting at its highest levels in three weeks. At first glance, it looks like just another bounce. But the drivers behind this move are bigger than technical noise, geopolitics and supply shocks are doing the heavy lifting.

Here’s why this rally isn’t random:

1. Washington Tightens the Screws

Trump urges Turkey's Erdogan to stop buying Russian oil
➡️ go.france24.com/pPh
— #FRANCE 24 (#@FRANCE24)
5:24 PM • Sep 25, 2025

The U.S. is doubling down on efforts to choke Russia’s energy revenues. President Trump urged Turkey’s President Erdogan to halt Russian oil purchases, while sanctions on Serbia’s Russian-owned NIS refinery will kick in October 1. These moves come on top of NATO’s latest warnings and ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, all adding to market jitters.

2. Russia Restricts Its Own Exports

The Russian government will extend the complete ban on gasoline exports until the end of 2025 for all market participants in the near future, as well as introduce a ban for non-diesel fuel producers, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters:
vk.cc/cPQ3KW
— #TASS (#@tassagency_en)
2:02 PM • Sep 25, 2025

Moscow is also making things tighter. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed a partial diesel export ban lasting through year-end, while extending limits on gasoline shipments. With refining capacity already under pressure, several Russian regions are reporting fuel shortages. For traders, that’s a clear sign supply stress is real.

3. WTI Holds the $65 Floor

On the charts, $65 is shaping up as a line in the sand. Prices are trading just above it, with near-term resistance at $65.80 and a bigger target up near $71.30. Holding above $64.90 keeps momentum on the bulls’ side. The longer WTI consolidates over $65, the more comfortable buyers get.

4. The Fed Factor Could Cap Upside

The wildcard is U.S. monetary policy. Fed officials this week split on how aggressive cuts should be, some cautious, others wanting deeper easing. If the Fed holds steady while inflation stays sticky, risk sentiment could cool, limiting speculative flows into commodities like oil.

My Takeaway

Crude’s rally isn’t being fueled by demand hype, it’s being powered by geopolitics. Sanctions, strikes, and export bans are all tightening the supply picture. As long as WTI holds $65, the market leans bullish. But with the Fed still in the mix, traders should expect volatility, not a straight-line breakout.

-Shaun A

TRADER INSIGHTS

Trailing Stops, ATR & Partial Profits. My Simple Exit Playbook

Taking profits and knowing where to do it is as important as applying a stop loss in a safe area. We suffer with the emotions of taking profits but partial profits and trailing stops can be the key to maximising our trades.

My Rule: Take Something at the First Barrier

From experience, I always like to take partial profits at the first point of resistance (or support if I’m short). What does that mean?

Basically, the first place price has struggled before. That could be:

A previous swing high or low
A zone of consolidation
A sharp reaction area (wick rejections, big volume spots, etc.)

These areas attract attention. They're magnets for profit-taking and can often be the start of retracement.

Stay in the Trade With a Smarter Stop

After that, I trail my stop using the ATR (Average True Range).

Why?

Because volatility matters. Using a 1x ATR stop below/above structure helps account for market noise without choking the trade too tight.

If the market wants to trend try to let it.
If it pulls back and stops me, no stress, I've already locked in partials.

The Win-Win Exit Strategy

If the trade keeps running: I’m in it for the ride
If it pulls back: I took profit early and exited smart
If it fakes out completely: I’m out with a smaller hit

Don’t get me wrong, you will come out with a lot of small winners, but when the one goes, it can go 2-3 times further than your risk.

-Jonathan Kibbler

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CHART BREAKDOWN OF THE DAY (NZD/CAD)

NZD/CAD has broken below key support at 0.8070, slipping toward the 0.8040 area as sellers keep control. The pair is trading under both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, reinforcing the bearish momentum. If downside pressure holds, the next targets sit at 0.7888 and 0.7840, while any bounce back above 0.8070 would need to clear 0.8150 to shift momentum back in favor of buyers.

DAILY TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NUGGET

❝

Amateurs think about how much they can make. Professionals think about how much they can lose.” Great traders don’t chase profits; they manage risk first. Protecting capital and controlling downside is what creates the space for long-term gains to compound.

- Jack Schwager

TODAY’S MOST TRENDING MARKET NEWS (SEPTEMBER 26, 2025)

credits: (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Asian stock markets tumbled overnight after U.S. President Trump unveiled sweeping new tariffs, including 100 % duties on imported pharmaceutical drugs, that rattled global investors. The move hit pharmaceutical and healthcare stocks especially hard, while the broader selloff also dragged on markets already reeling from renewed doubts about aggressive Fed rate cuts. (source: reuters)

GAMES