Good morning. Did you know that during major news releases like NFP or CPI, the market can move more in 10 seconds than it does in an entire trading session?
That’s why pros say: when trading the news, your execution speed matters more than your analysis.
-Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
MARKET ANALYSIS
Markets Wait for the Next Signal
Last week felt like a rollercoaster and not the fun kind.
We had a volatile mix surprises, split opinions inside the Fed, and then, just when things seemed to cool down, a sharp dip across global equities on Friday triggered by Trump’s surprise 100% tariff threat on China, jolted markets again.
If you blinked, you might’ve missed that mini crash but it was enough to remind everyone that this market still runs on emotion. With trade war fears reignited, this week’s setup could define the tone for much of October.
Now, as we head into a new week, the big question is whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell can bring some calm back when he speaks on Wednesday (Oct 15)
Here’s what’s on the radar and why it matters:
1. Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Wednesday, Oct 15
I guess you already know the drill. When Jerome Powell speaks, traders stop and listen.
This week, his remarks carry extra weight not only for rate expectations, but for how markets navigate trade risks.
Last week’s Fed minutes showed most officials expect two more rate cuts before year-end. But with tariff risks resurfacing, Powell’s tone could tilt the balance between confidence and caution.
I’ll be watching not just what he says, but how he says it. Markets respond to tone more than content especially when sentiment is fragile.
2. Australia’s Labor Data – Thursday, Oct 16
This is one of those reports that doesn’t always grab headlines but it should.
The RBA just cut rates, and the Aussie has been on the defensive.
If jobs data comes in weak, it might confirm that the next RBA move is another cut.
3. U.S. Inflation & Retail Data – Thursday, Oct 16
Thursday brings a crowded docket: consumer & producer inflation, plus retail sales. This is the data trifecta the Fed cares about most.
If inflation softens, that gives Powell cover to lean dovish again. If it surprises hotter, the tariff noise might combine with hawkish repricing.
It’s the kind of week where the reaction matters more than the actual print.
My Takeaway
We’re entering what I’d call a “tone-shift week” not necessarily explosive, but one that defines direction for the rest of the month.
Between Powell’s tone, Aussie jobs, and U.S. inflation prints, this week is all about confirmation or contradiction.
Week’s like this, it’s for reaction traders not prediction traders. I’m trading this week with a guard up. Ciao!
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FOREX
Currency Strength & Weakness for 13th October
Well, the man in the White House strikes once more, this time responding to China who seem to have sent letters to leaders around the world with demands on exports of their critical minerals. Trump responded by announcing 100% additional tariffs on China’s US bound exports by November 1st.
To this the market volatility rose sharply with the VIX trading above 22.00 for the first time since August.
With this came some changes to the currency strength meter, some reflecting this risk off response.
Let’s take a look at what moved last week.
Strong Currencies
My currency strength meter highlights these currencies as the strongest as of last week:
USD: The volatility of last week only aided the USD especially against the risk off currencies like the NZD and AUD. Now it claims the top spot at +7, so upside could be limited.
CHF: The Swiss Franc claims the second spot on the CSM at +5. This has been a currency used by the market this year with the Swiss National Bank heading for negative rates.
Weak Currencies
Looking at the opposite side of the strength meter now, these are the weakest of last week:
AUD: Last week I stated the Aussie is the top dog and we don’t want to go against it right now. Well how the markets can change. One big moment and this seems to have displaced the Aussie and it now is the weaker market.
NZD: If you were short NZD last week this would have been beneficial. This looks likely to continue with the RBNZ cutting aggressively recently and forward guidance looking shaky.
Markets to watch
Based off of the above these are the currency pairs on my trading watchlist:
Bullish | Bearish |
AUDUSD | |
NZDUSD | |
AUDCHF | |
NZDCHF |
CHART BREAKDOWN OF THE DAY (USD/JPY)
USD/JPY is trading near 152.17, holding firm after breaking above the key 150.70 resistance. The pair is now testing the 153.00 zone, a level that’s capped previous rallies. Momentum remains bullish above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, though price looks slightly overextended. A brief pullback toward 150.70 or 149.00 would be healthy, but staying above 150.70 keeps the uptrend intact. A clean break over 153.10 could pave the way toward 154.50 and even 156.00.
DAILY TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NUGGET
“Chasing losses is how traders turn bad days into bad months.” One emotional trade to ‘win it back’ can undo weeks of solid work. The best traders know when to step back, reset, and protect their mindset before stepping in again.
TODAY’S MOST TRENDING MARKET NEWS (OCTOBER 13, 2025)
credits: REUTERS/Tingshu Wang
China’s stock markets plunged sharply today as tensions with the U.S. flared on President Trump’s announcement of new 100% tariffs and export controls, the CSI300 dropped ~1.8%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tumbled 3.5%. The shock from renewed trade hostilities is rattling global risk assets. (source:reuters)
GAMES
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